Skip to content

GenoLeWM-FX feasibility and kill report

Generated by tools.research.fx_feasibility at 2026-06-11T10:00:00Z.

Parent epic: #257. Contract: #258. Probe: #259.

Decision: kill.

The FX pivot has no model-quality claim, no clinical utility claim, no broad variant-effect prediction claim, and no useful-planning claim. The public output is a kill report unless a future source/teacher cache passes this contract.

Reproduce

uv run python -m tools.research.fx_feasibility \
  --manifest configs/fx/feasibility_sources.json \
  --run-public-source-probe \
  --output-json docs/research/fx-feasibility-report.json \
  --output-md docs/research/fx-feasibility-report.md

Machine-readable report: fx-feasibility-report.json.

Blockers

  • no_public_teacher_delta_cache: No candidate source provides a public, checksum-addressed ref/alt teacher-delta cache for the required 10k-50k probe.
  • no_bulk_admissible_teacher: No teacher is currently admissible for bulk training-cache use under the contract and local artifact state.
  • local_teacher_runtime_missing: The local runtime has no AlphaGenome credential/package and no TensorFlow or AlphaGenome Research teacher stack.

Public Source Probe

Baseline Rows AUROC AUPRC Balanced accuracy
label_prior_no_teacher 3390 0.5000 [0.5000, 0.5000] 0.1000 [0.1000, 0.1000] 0.5000 [0.5000, 0.5000]
maf_source_only 3390 0.5057 [0.4785, 0.5324] 0.1024 [0.0892, 0.1184] 0.4987 [0.4853, 0.5153]
ld_score_source_only 3390 0.4923 [0.4646, 0.5249] 0.0997 [0.0877, 0.1122] 0.5018 [0.4855, 0.5168]
tss_distance_source_only 3390 0.5089 [0.4780, 0.5392] 0.1091 [0.0911, 0.1249] 0.5188 [0.4970, 0.5440]

These rows test whether the public TraitGym label slice is trivially saturated by simple metadata. They do not provide the required teacher residual target.

Candidate Teacher Status

Teacher Allowed role Bulk training admissible Local runtime Blocking reason
alphagenome_api sampled calibration/API baseline False False The contract permits AlphaGenome only as a bounded sampled calibration/API baseline unless terms and rates support larger use.; The local run has no AlphaGenome API key or package, and the public API is not a checksum-addressed 10k-50k teacher cache.
alphagenome_weights future heavyweight local teacher if terms, hardware, and artifacts are locked False False Weights require accepting model terms and the upstream docs recommend H100-class hardware for model inference.; No accepted-terms receipt, model revision, hardware receipt, or ref/alt teacher-cache artifact is available in this repo.
borzoi candidate local teacher False False The model is public, but the local run does not have the TensorFlow teacher stack or downloaded model weights.; The upstream large training data is requester-pays; no compact public ref/alt cache is locked for GenoLeWM-FX.
enformer candidate local teacher False False No TensorFlow teacher stack, model revision, input window manifest, or ref/alt output cache is present in this repo.; Using Enformer now would make the probe depend on ad hoc setup rather than a public GenoLeWM-FX cache manifest.
chrombpnet candidate task-specific teacher False False The repository provides model/training tooling, but no selected cell-type model, peaks, genome, or ref/alt cache is locked here.; No GPU/Docker teacher runtime receipt or checksum-addressed GenoLeWM-FX cache is present.
Issue Action Reason
#258 close-completed The source-controlled contract is locked in docs/research/fx-experiment-contract.md.
#259 close-kill The feasibility gate found no reproducible 10k-50k public teacher-delta slice under the contract.
#260 close-not-planned Teacher adapters and caches should not be built until a source/teacher pair passes the feasibility gate.
#261 close-not-planned The residual model path should not be implemented without a selected target and teacher cache.
#262 close-not-planned No staged Hugging Face jobs should launch without the #259 go decision.
#263 close-not-planned The locked benchmark gate is unreachable because the experiment stops at feasibility.
#264 close-completed The public output is the kill report, not a model artifact release.
#265 close-completed The final paper/demo decision is no FX paper update and no demo because evidence is insufficient.

Final Interpretation

The FX pivot is stopped before teacher-cache implementation, residual model work, Hugging Face sweeps, or a public demo. The public TraitGym complex-trait split is large enough for a cheap source-only probe, but this repo does not have a locked, checksum-addressed 10k-50k ref/alt teacher-delta cache from AlphaGenome, Borzoi, Enformer, ChromBPNet, or another functional teacher. Continuing would require private credentials, heavyweight teacher setup, or newly curated artifacts before the actual GenoLeWM-FX hypothesis could be tested.